28.01.06
The Intifada of the Elections
some reflections on the
elections in Palestine and the tasks ahead
By Jørgen
Johansen, Visiting Scholar, Centre for Peace and Reconciliation Studies, Coventry
University, UK
Elections
in Palestine major achievement.
All
Palestinians and other friends of Palestine should be congratulated with the
elections! Despite occupation, travel restrictions, checkpoints and a number of
other obstacles from the Israeli side, the PA, the political parties and the
constituency managed to hold the campaigns, the actual voting, the counting of
votes and the presenting of the results at a remarkably high standard. No state
in the region has ever been able to deliver such a standard under such
conditions! The formal parliamentary democracy is now established in Palestine.
For it to become a real and functional democracy it is still a way to go, but
this a very important step in the right direction. And here I want to add that
only a few (if any?) countries who brag about being democracies are doing very
well on the more deep criteria for a real and functional democracy. Western
politicians seem to believe that Palestine only will be democratic if the new
leadership is pro EU/USA.
Why did
people voted for Hamas?
For a few
days Palestinians tested freedom and democracy. Many liked it. It was a form of
People Power never previously experienced in Palestine. I have difficulties in
imagining that the people would ever accept to go back to the old system. Worries
about Hamas introducing a theocracy, like they have in Iran and the Vatican, is
not very probable. A majority of those who voted for a change will never accept
that. Any development in the direction of fundamentalism will grow the more
rest of the world isolates the new government and parliament. For those who
want the new power-holders to adopt democracy and respect for human rights
there is an urgent need to open doors and start dialogs.
The recent
election should be analysed in the light of the two previous elections (the
municipality and the presidential ones) and it is necessary to take into
consideration the recent developments in Lebanon, Syria, Israel and Iraq.
Many voices
have already been trying to explain why Harakat al-Muqawamah al-Islamiyya
[Hamas] did so well. I agree with a lot of it. Let me just shortly indicate
what I agree with and then add some arguments of my own.
-
Disappointment
with Fatah
I agree
that many voted for Hamas to punish Fatah for the corruption, for not being
able to deliver what they have promised, and just because they wanted to try
something else after so many years with more and more problems. The
institutionalised corruption within the PA was causing serious problems for
many, many Palestinians. Mahmoud Abbas has so far not managed to reduce the level
of corruption significantly.
-
Hamas
provides food, education and organisation
We should
not underestimate that many voted for Hamas because their huge and important
work on welfare, schools, distribution of food, etc. They have a record to be
proud of in these areas. The PA was for many the symbol of unemployment,
poverty and even hunger. Hamas have for a long time now been much better on all
sorts of grassroots activities within labour unions, student organisations and
other youth organisations. They are overall better on mobilising and organising
ordinary people than Fatah, which has been using too much of their resources
and skills on monopolising most political institutions.
-
Religion
plays a less important role than some may think
The
religious factor was important for many, but far from every voter used their
ballot for religious reasons. But people have a tendency to be more actively
religious in times of crises and war. When everything is chaotic it is good to
have a fixed point in life. For many the Mosques, the Imams and the Koran have
been such a safe place in their lives. Hamas is announcing publicly that they
are an Islamic movement following the Sharia laws and, for good reasons,
representing these values for many people.
But many of
those who voted for Hamas this time did not do so for religious reasons. It
seems probable that in addition to “punish” Fatah many just wanted a change and
probably many thought that Hamas was a better choice for pure pragmatic
reasons. It is important to separate the rhetoric from the practice when we
judge Hamas. And we must bear in mind that their representatives, just like any
other politicians, use different languages and arguments depending on who the
audience is. The main message in the election campaign was much more liberal
than the most radical quotations western media are digging up these days. What
a Hamas leader is saying to radical devoted followers will of course be
different from what their newly appointed PR consultant, Mr Aqtash from Birzeit
University, will tell western media. What their practical politics will be is
probably none of these versions.
-
Hamas
claimed success in fighting Israel
Some voted
for Hamas because they have symbolised the resistance against the occupation. Fatah
has for many symbolised just an endless number of compromises (in which
Palestinians have been the loosing part every time). Every time Fatah have been
engaged in peace negotiations they have been betrayed by Israel, USA, Norway,
etc. The most concrete results for ordinary people are the Wall, flying
checkpoints, more settlements and more poverty. The results for Fatah have been
bad consequences for their constituency. Hamas was outside these processes and
consequently was not blamed for the results. Hamas was by many, wrongly, given
the credit for the withdrawal from Gaza. That is a wrong assumption, but one
many wanted to believe in. If you, with some degree of probability, can define
an event as a victory you are more likely to do that than critically analysing
the fact and come up with a different conclusion.[1]
The growing
armed resistance against the US-led occupation in Iraq has encouraged many to
believe in the power of the Kalashnikov,
the suicide bombs, and the road-side bombs. This is just as important as a very
complex process which deserves a serious discussion. The main problem is that
so many believe that there is either a choice of armed resistance or passivity.
The 100 other options for how to influence the situation are not on the table
in most of the restaurants in Ramallah or the cafeterias in Nablus. Here there
is an enormous task for those with knowledge and ideas about how to promote a
sustainable peace with other means.
-
Chaos
after the death of Arafat
It is of
course also important to recognise the effect the death of President Arafat has
had on Fatah. Without his clear leadership a number of old internal conflicts
popped up to the surface. All of them destroyed the former unity and some of
them were devastating for the results in the elections.[2] From the time when Mahmoud
Abbas was prime minister the old guard of Fatah people stood against him and
behind Arafat in several conflicts. The results of the elections could be seen
as a form of revenge.
One factor
I think is underestimated is that Fatah (and consequently PLO and the PA) have
for too long time been dominated by what is sometimes called the
“Tunis-generation”. The bright, young, and intelligent Palestinian men and
women with a burning eagerness to “serve their country” did not have access to
political positions when Arafat was the leader, and not enough changed in this
respect during the first year with Mahmoud Abbas. Their qualifications were not
used by the PA. This is a very delicate problem. How can you remove elderly men
from their high positions without offending them? The cultural context
complicates such a move even more. It is also financial hurdles in this
problem, with some relevance to the earlier level of corruption. The young
generation could, if they had been given positions in PA, been very useful in
changing the internal culture and adapt to the new times and conditions of
today. The old PLO traditions of how to run an organisation were developed, and
made much sense, when it was mainly an armed guerrilla movement. It is not fit
for the situation of today when the task is not to fight the enemy with
military means, but to win open and fair elections with a constituency
consisting of a lot of young, poor, disillusioned people and large groups of
people who are third generation refugees living in camps.
-
External
criticism, internal support
Another
factor I would like to raise is the effect of International actors and media
labelling Hamas as a terrorist organisation. Both EU and US, but not UN!, have
them on their respective lists of outcasts (“terrorists”). It is basic
psychology that when “all” external actors put guilt on someone there is a
tendency that the blamed one gets support from his own people. With an extreme
one-sided rhetoric from US, Israeli, and European politicians and media
regarding Hamas nobody should be surprised by the growing support for them. The
fact that Hamas obviously was the group Israel and USA feared automatically
made them heroes among many Palestinians.
What
will come out of these elections?
In politics
the possibility to predict the next steps is just as difficult as in meteorology.
With a good level of information of the situation today, you may be able to say
something about the next five days. But more than that is nothing more than a
guess. Palestine is absolutely no exception to this rule. The guesses can be
more or less qualified deductions, but they will still basically be a guess.
Too many factors are unknown and each of the known factors is in constant
change.
Let me,
despite this warning, present some of my views on the options, possibilities
and challenges ahead for those who are engaged in the future of the Palestinian
people.
-
Impact
on/of Israeli elections
The coming
elections in Israel will of course have an immense impact on the possibility to
negotiate with the new PA. But this is not necessarily a question of left or
right on the political scale. We have seen many examples that conservative
politicians have had more room for maneuvering than the more leftist ones.[3]
I am not saying that I would like to see a hawk as the next prime minister in
Israel! I am just making the point that politics is much more complicated than
the naive view that it can be placed on a two-dimensional line from Left to
Right.
-
Impact
on relationships with EU, US and Iran
In the immediate future I am worried of the
financial situation for the new Parliament. Without money to pay salaries next
Friday the reaction from administrative personnel, police forces, security
personnel and others will come very soon. We are talking about around USD 100
million a month for just salaries. Since the occupation makes almost every sort
of business impossible the only way this money can be delivered is by donations
from abroad. USA and EU have been the main contributors so far. It would be
extremely stupid of them to stop the flow of money due to the fact that the
fair elections turned out like they did. The Arab League has joined those
voices that want Hamas to disarm and accept Israel before any transfer of money
can be done. I believe such declarations will come, but it cannot be expected
over night. It cannot be expected that such a shift in policy can be the first
thing the new Parliament and Government will do. What sort of signal would that
be to their constituencies? We have already seen several indications and moves
from Hamas over the last year that they are on the move in the right directions
on these questions. Give them some more time and they will deliver. If the US
and the EU stop giving money to the PA, I am sure Iran will step in,
complicating things enormously.
Results needed badly
-
Jobs,
food and travel
Hamas will need to deliver positive results for
ordinary people pretty soon. A majority of those who voted for them expect
results within months. This will be the main challenge. All oppositional
movements that have gained power have faced the difficulty of delivering a real
change relatively soon. For the average Palestinian that will mean that she or
he gets a job, food on the table, less travel restrictions, more safety (as
opposed to security) and improvements in the infrastructure (roads,
electricity, sewage systems, water supply, etc).
-
Security
situation
In the next step it will be a great challenge
to see if the new government will be able to control the police and security
forces. Will the forces obey the new Parliament? What if they don’t? What will
be the relationship between these forces and the armed groups within Hamas? Formally
it is the president, Mahmoud Abbas, who is the supreme commander of the
Security Forces. But with only a minority behind him in the Parliament it can
be very difficult for him to have actual control over these forces. His earlier
proposal to share this function as chief of the forces with a deputy president
could soon come on the agenda again.
The conflicts around the security forces are
the possible “gun powder barrel” for a worst case scenario of civil war in
Palestine. And that is a situation the hawks in Israel would love to see. I
would be surprised if they not already are doing their best to create such a
situation. Mossad, Shin Bet and their collaborators are probably doing their
best to create splits in this very moment. What can be done to prevent them
from having success in this? (As I
am writing these lines I hear on radio that Fatah people have stormed the
Parliament in Gaza and Ramallah and my heart is crying).
-
Need
for experienced people
A serious problem is the lack of people within
Hamas who have skills fit for running a country. There are thousands of
positions to fill in ministries, agencies, security forces and so on. Very few
have experiences relevant for such positions. This is not to says that they
will not be able to find ministers, but it will take some time for them be warm
in the chairs. The step from being hunted by IDF as “terrorists” to be acting
as ministers is a pretty big one. For
the many other positions it can be very difficult to find people at all. The
organisations they are running well today cannot just be abandoned. Some could
turn into governmental agencies, but not all of them. Then we have the question
of how smooth the changeover from the old Fatah-led organisations will run. Nobody
must believe it is going to be easy for the outgoing or incoming
representatives.
-
New
elections soon?
Many Fatah activists obviously want to make the
takeover as difficult as possible for Hamas. They are doing their best to
create problems for the incoming representatives. Some even think they can
create enough chaos to have new elections relatively soon and then come back in
power with “clean” hands. I doubt if this option is wise and doable. There is
for the moment a strong need for conflict resolution between Hamas and Fatah. But
I cannot see any obvious mediator who has respect enough in both camps.
Whatever Hamas wants to achieve over the next
four years of power in Palestine, the international actors manipulating the
processes in the region are much more influential than Hamas will ever be. It
is not only up to Hamas what will happen with the Palestinian people in the
time to come. If they are able to fulfil some of the welfare they have promised
it will be good for the population. If they, due to incompetence, external
interference or domestic conflicts cannot deliver, they will be removed in the
2010 elections.
What can we do?
For the moment I would argue for maximum level
of contacts with all parts of Hamas. Isolation is just as unhealthy for
political movement as for prisoners! Meet with them, congratulate, discuss,
listen, learn and present your views in open and honest discussions! Since most
states seem to avoid contacts with Hamas, these tasks will need to be the
responsibility of civil society actors. There is nobody else to do the job. After
some months we will understand if it is time to propose joint projects. Hamas
is not a unified organisation. There is of course a diversity of views on a
number of questions inside Hamas. I regard it as very important to understand
and get insights into Hamas and their different sections as soon as possible. Let
us identify which “fractions” it makes most sense to contact and having dialogs
with. I cannot imagine that many are banging on their doors already, but I
would like to be among the first ones. The practical problem that US and EU
regard it as illegal to have such contacts should not prevent us. And even if
we initially have to make these contacts partly outside the public sphere I
don’t want to be too secret about them. I want to be open about these contacts,
and to continue our good contacts with Fatah and other PA people.
__________________________
/Coventry, UK 2006/01/29
Jorgen Johansen
Visiting Scholar
johansej@coventry.ac.uk
Centre for Peace and Reconciliation Studies
Coventry University
Priory Street
Coventry CV1 5FB
UK
Web-site: www.coventry.ac.uk/peacestudy